Nah. stronger men have broken from deaths of children. it could go either way.

Hi evilclosetmonkey!

RE do we have enough info to formulate answers? I’m going to go with NO, OBVIOUSLY NOT OR I WOULD HAVE. lol. it’s actually possible there was something hinted at back in one of the earliest jon arryn mentions that i’ve forgotten, but for what stuck with a first reader–nothing that would be better than guessing on a multiple choice test. in this case all the choices being “any character named except robert or ned.”

** TOTALLY SPOILERS **

It’s not like Renly could have foreseen a way to deal with Mel. If things had gone slightly differently, he could’ve smashed Stannis to pieces, let Tywin and Robb exhaust each other while he’s peacefully sauntering up to King’s Landing, and win the war without even perspiring.

** Spoilers **

I agree with you, I always thought it was Varys. For one thing, when he’s being incognito we usually seem to default to our minor characters’ describing some guy in a big cloak. Secondly, he’s always seemed to have a soft spot for the kids – His reminiscing about the death of the little Targaryen princess, and I think he mentions unhappily in a later book there were some of Robert’s bastards that Cersei got to. Whether you want to say he’s doing that out of the kindness of his heart, or professionally to either A) make things better for Robert, or B) keep the peace until it’s time for the invasion… I have no idea.

*** Spoilers ***

The Crown has the support of enough of the kingdoms to stand against Tywin. If Ned tells Robert about the incest, Robert is probably going to have an extreme and violent reaction. Stannis will stand by his brother, Renly can bring the Stormlands and probably the Reach as well (the Tyrells have more to gain at this point fighting for the Crown than endearing themselves to the Lannisters), the North would join through Ned, the Riverlands as well. Dorne might even bestir herself to screw over the Lannisters. The Vale would sit out and the Iron Islands would probably just raid whoever looked the weakest.

The Gold Cloaks are for sale through Janos Slynt, so perhaps the Lannisters can win an initial victory there but it isn’t clear Littlefinger would help the Lannisters under these circumstances and he seems to be the one that pulled those strings.

The Lannisters have a couple hundred guardsmen in King’s Landing, but that’s it for troops definitely loyal to them. As far as proof, as Cersei says in the show, when you’re king the truth is what you say it is. If Robert says it is the case then few outside of the Westerlands will openly question it. If Robert immediately executes Cersei & Jaime then it looks even worse for the Lannisters. What are they fighting for other than revenge in that case? Tywin isn’t going to garner many allies and though I’m sure he could put up one hell of a fight, he’d ultimately be doomed to failure. The forces arrayed against him would just be too great. Tywin isn’t exactly the most popular lord with his peers, so I don’t really see how he would be able to take power outright.

The problem with the rumors later in the series is they are coming primarily from Stannis after Robert is dead. Cersei and her kids are already confirmed as the rightful rulers at this point (and Ned stated this was the case). It seems to many as if Stannis is just spreading sour grapes and it is much harder to unseat the Lannisters once they’ve been confirmed. If Robert and Ned had decreed the incest as fact, few would question it.

*** End Spoliers ***

Ned is capable of humor! He even has a little snark in him, but he sure does keep that hidden most of the time.

At this point in the story I remember coming to the same realization about Joff and wanting to will this information into Ned’s head because he still doesn’t get it.

Who took care of Gendry’s settlement? How did Jon Arryn find out about the children? Great questions at this point, read and find out I have to say. Can’t remember if we’ve gotten enough info at this point in the story to formulate answers.

@evilclosetmonkey

yea.. that makes sense except for one thing.. Stannis doesn’t run. I feel like he went there for a specific reason. Maybe the plan was for Lysa to go to him, she of course didn’t b/c she had Littlefinger in her ear..among other places

but I still can’t figure out the Jon/Stannis team. What IS that? I guess… with all of King’s Landing to choose from.. Stannis was the one who at the very least wouldn’t be lying to your face? But he could be lied to… The whole things is such a freaking mess. I’ve always found the Jon Arryn mystery and the events surrounding it to be messy. I guess messy on purpose. I’m still hoping for some more revelations.

@evilclosetmonkey

I agree with you on Renly’s plan. But come on.. he has to have a motivation! Which is why I think he knew about the bastards. Probably not the incest. I think you guys are all discounting Tywin. He’s got money, men, troops.. the crown has nothing. All the troops in the city belong to the Lannisters. Hire an assassin to kill Jaime and Cersei? You better hope they succeed! That still doesn’t do anything but give Tywin an excuse to take power outright. You’d have to kill a whole lot of people for that to work. You’d need a hostage. A high ranking one.

Plus.. there’s really no “proving” the incest. Which is the problem that comes up later in the books. You’ve got these rumors everywhere but .. so what?

You’d have to kill the children as well. What’s to prevent Tywin from taking the children and starting a war? Which he would do. HE WOULD.

Jon Arryn or Renly murdering a child? Ok.. maybe Renly would.

*** Spoilers ***

I’m pretty sure it was Varys supporting Gendry, alas, still no book to offer support other than my memory.

I thought Renly’s plan was to get Robert to set Cersei aside in favor of Margaery. Renly doesn’t seem to know about the twincest, he’s just trying to get out from under the Lannister thumb and get more power into the hands of Loras’s family. It’s debatable whether this would have worked. Renly’s plan doesn’t have a legitimate reason for Cersei to be set aside and the Lannisters are powerful enough that getting rid of them without a valid reason wouldn’t be that easy.

Jon & Stannis have the information needed for a legitimate reason. If the Queen and her brother are revealed to have committed treason and the royal children are actually bastards then Robert has every right to get rid of them. Ned certainly thinks so and he seems to also think that Robert would have ordered all their deaths and went to war with the Lannisters as well. Tywin doesn’t really have a leg to stand on if the truth about the wonder twins is revealed. Alas, with Jon dead Stannis doesn’t think Robert would believe the accusation coming from Stannis alone.

*** End Spoilers ***

Kill Cersei and Jaime at once, and who the fuck knows what Tywin would do.
Ya might break ol’ goldbritches.
either way, no more owing him tons of money…

*** Spoilers ***

Sending Sweetrobin to Stannis makes sense. Jon and Stannis seem to have some sort of friendship or close working relationship. Stannis has a child reasonably close to Sweetrobin in age and Stannis is just the sort of hardass in a hard place to toughen Sweetrobin up. Stannis would take the duty seriously (he’s serious about everything) so Jon probably couldn’t think of a better place to send him.

*** End Spoilers ***

*** Spoilers ***

I agree, Tywin might not like it, but he’s not going to find much support if it’s revealed that Cersei and Jaime have been fucking and that the royal children are twincest babies. Tywin is badass but not badass enough to take on the other kingdoms on his own.

I think Stannis ran because he didn’t want to get caught in the trap that Ned walked into. I believe he ran after Jon Arryn died and Robert started North. Remember, Stannis doesn’t have much love or trust for either Robert or Ned. He feels like Robert shafted him by sending him to Dragonstone after he was held up in Storm’s End for the whole rebellion. He also feels like Ned usurped his rightful spot by Robert’s side and that the brotherly love Robert showed Ned should have gone to him. It’s no surprise that he didn’t want any part of a Robert-Ned administration, especially with the Lannister noose steadily closing.

*** End Spoilers ***

@Patrick C

yea.. I never figured it out either. Only thing that makes sense is because Robin was supposed to go there to be fostered (but.. seriously WHY WOULD HE SEND HIM TO STANNIS?) unless it was to perhaps accompany a certain horrible little boy to ALSO be fostered?

@Rachel – I think if the twincest was exposed, Robert would have to divorce Cersei, and probably imprison her for treason. Tywin wouldn’t like it, but what could he do? Then again, I never saw any proof that Renly knew about the twincest and bastardy of the children, it seemed only Jon and Stannis knew about that.

And I’ve read the books multiple times, and I still don’t get why Stannis ran away to Dragonstone. Did he flee after Jon Arryn died? Was he afraid of the Lannisters? It doesn’t seem to fit.

***Spoilers***

@stile

I don’t think they’re that naive. Renly’s instincts after Robert’s death are pretty spot on. It’s not his fault no one thought his ideas were valid. I think that Renly and Loras became caught up in their own mythos (probably how Ned and Robert were at that age). They didn’t think they could fail so they didn’t plan for it.

Seems unlikely, though. And not their style at all…they’re too naive.

@Rhaegar’s Rubies

I was under the impression that Gendry had only been apprenticing a few years but you’re probably right. Varys could have placed Gendry there.. and that’s where Renly noticed him.

But I don’t think divorce/execution of Cersei would ever have worked. The realm owed far too much money to the Lannisters. Petyr made sure of it.

I don’t think Renly and Loras were the ones supporting Gendry. At the time of the story, Renly is about 22 and Gendry is about 16. When does one start apprenticing? Age 10? That would make Renly wily enough to start this plan when he’s 16? And I highly doubt Renly was in a relationship with Loras at this time – Loras would have been 10 as well… Seems more like a Varys move to me.

And I thought the plan with Margaery was to get Robert to divorce/execute Cersei by exposing her betrayal and disinheriting her children and marrying Margaery instead. All legitimate and above the board. No need for bastard legitimization.